State jobs buoy firms this year

       Construction for both the public and private sectors this year is likely to shrink by between 4.5% and 8.1%, even with government investment helping to drive improvement, according to Kasikorn Research Center.
       Government investment in the construction industry in the second half was estimated to have declined by a range of 0.2% to 6.7% year-on-year, improving from a contraction of between 3.4% and 8.2% in the first half, and resulting in a full-year contraction of between 1.6% and 7.4%.
       Private investment is projected to drop by 7.0% to 8.1% in the second half compared to a range of 7.4% to 9.4% in the first half, leading to a full-year contraction of 7.2% to 8.7%.
       The research centre said the economic stimulus package, Strong Thailand, would be an essential mechanism to revive activity in the construction industry. With a focus on small projects, the government can certainly implement those projects in the second half, it pointed out.
       "Government construction will be the first sector to recover, followed by the commercial, residential and industrial sectors," the centre noted.
       The government's "dustless road" project is to be implemented nationwide,which should be good for local contractors. There are irrigation projects and infrastructure investment, including the Purple Line mass-transit route between Bang Yai and Bang Sue that should be started by the end of this year.
       Other positive factors in the second half from the centre's point of view include the recovery of the local economy,the measures to stimulate the real estate industry and rising construction material prices that may speed up the decision for investment.
       The main negative factor to consider is government investment could be delayed if politics become unstable again,worsening the forecast.
       Other hurdles that would hinder the revival of the industry include the uncertainty of an economic recovery, stricter loan approvals by financial institutions,the continuing panic surrounding H1N1 influenza, rising product prices and the inefficiency of budget reimbursement programmes.